Ultimatenyg is on record: the Giants will win and cover (-6.5) over the Falcons. Here are the reasons:
1) Buy low. The Giants were not as good as 5-0, as we pointed out numerous times dating back to before the season started that the real season would begin in Week 6. The Giants are also not as bad as 0-4 the last 4 outings, as much as we have called for Parcells’s, Reeve’s, Fassel’s, Coughlin’s and Gilbride’s head the past 11 days.
2) Boley and Canty are back NOW, not two weeks ago. This may be anecdotal, but I have never seen a player come back from (extended) injury and light the world afire the very first game. Generally there is a progression where the first game back is neutral and thereafter they get their timing and legs. I do not even think these two players will be that great (Sunday), but they’ll be better than last game vs SD and that will be enough. Fwiw, having Ross back is a positive, but his impact this weekend should not be significant.. unless of course we see him playing Safety
3) It is not who you play but when you play them. Michael Turner is (probably) out. ATL’s offense has gone a little stagnant lately, relying on TE Tony Gonzalez too much. Webster will match up with Rody White and do well. Ryan has given up 10 INTs in his last 5 games.
4) The Insanity of NFL betting. The team we watched vs the Saints on Monday night is a good team. But this is exactly how the NFL works… everyone loves the Giants -1 at PHL but less than everyone will love the Giants -6.5 home vs ATL. You have to be stupid to like the Giants, so that is why it will probably work.
5) Bye. The cure that ails the Giants in so many ways. Yes, you have probably been reading about this in other corners. It is entirely logical and plausible. The Giants needed a little rest. Just a guess, but (5a) might be Old Tom working these guys too hard lately. The rest will be doubly beneficial in terms of performance. They are not going to be flat after a loss before the bye.
6) The Eagles loss and Dallas loss. If this does not energize the team and make them aware of how fortunate they are to have a new lease on life, I do not know what will.
7) Self-scouting. Teams traditionally self-scout themselves during the bye. A blind man can see that the Giants have been playing to too much tendency and will shake things up a little bit…just enough to get an extra score and maybe an extra stop. That is what wins ball games.
8) The line is high enough to scare off enough of the NY Post masses. Remember how we alerted the stench of EVERY NY Post genius who liked the Giants over the Eagles as a warning sign of potential trouble. 9 out of 9 had the Giants AND 3 had them as best bets. If we were smart that would have told us to simply go the other way, but even we were on the sidelines, not going on record either way. We’ll check the Post masses on Friday to make sure that a vast majority are finally off the Giants’ bandwagon. (If they are on the gmen, then no pick.)
9) The Giants did not get ‘outplayed’ by the Chargers. They played well enough to win and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. In general, football teams in the NFL are tougher opponents when they lose a tough game the previous weekend. They play with more focus and determination and actually get a confidence that they can play well (assuming they make corrections and improvements).
10) Wonderful– I conferred with my svengali friend Wonder, who confirms my ideas and adds: “No Michael Turner = Easy Victory. Just don’t turn the ball over. If the Giants are zero or even minus one on turnovers they will win.”