Sometimes you get epiphanies when you least expect it.
There was this friend named Speedy, a real Damon Runyon character. I am in Vegas, it’s the 80′s. I’m a young kid having a great time, able to gamble without any consequence. Speedy must have noted my awe with the growth of this Adult Wonderland, so he threw a different angle: “This town wasn’t built on winners…”
Speedy’s reminder is always in the back of my mind whenever trying to assess a betting proposition. Gambling is fun and it is great entertaintment, but it is not a long term profitable endeavor. And so it is with that thought that we like to use prevailing sentiment from the NY Post bettors survey to get a sense of where people’s beliefs are. If the people are right for too long the line corrects and adjusts to balance out the money and make it harder. It is not a conspiracy, just an economic reality. If you could sit back and easily predict betting outcomes, would you work for a living? Not many would.
When the Eagles were playing the Giants in the first matchup this season, we noted that this 5-2 team was clearly back to earth and should be competitive and win the game- I mean it was a divisional opponent and the team would have NO CHOICE but to be ready, right?!!! But we added that EVERYONE thought way (9 out of 9 Post geniuses!), that the masses at the NY Post were ALL on the Giants, that that could NOT be a good sign. 40-17 later, the masses were walloped. This trend continued where the bandwagon was full and the Giants were not.
The unsystem is not a system into itself either. I mean, if it worked so well that it consistently overcame the vig, then we’d be rich. But it is certainly a yellow light at the very least.
Vs Dallas two weeks ago, with the betting streak now at 6 games AGAINST the Giants, hope was lost and 7 out of 10 bailed. Even the great Simms (who is not having a GREAT year) bailed. And the Giants actually covered! Crazy. But crazy is what crazy does. Go trying to predict the unpredictable.
There is enough faith that the Giants will win on the road vs the Skins on Monday to give another warning to Giants fans. When 8 out of 10 people like the Giants despite the team failing vs the spread in 7 out of the last 8 contests, it is a sign. Of trouble. There is a lack of respect and understanding of the uptick for the Skins. Hell, maybe I am the dope who thinks the Skins’ stronger performances these past 5 games is relevant. We’ll see on Monday night.