Today we visit with the past 10 years’ Offensive Tackles taken in the Draft (2000-2009).
|Year||Player||Pick||Starts||Pro Bowls||Wonder’s Grade|
Note: 2008-2009 grades are still moving.
Wonder notes that the 2008 and 2009 guys here at OT are still going to move up. As an example, Oher is not yet a 2 but will be shortly. That is in stark contrast to the feel he had for Defensive Tackles, where there just was not the same clarity or certainty in their progress.
Nothing gets Wonder going more than reviewing a negative draft critique gone right for him. He was anti- Chris Williams in 2008, and he is getting the last laugh on that one. He was in love with Branden Albert (see same link for Guards) and was confounded with how the Lions could trade down 2 spots to 17 and end up with Cherilus when Albert was there at 15 (only to be taken by the Chiefs, great move). This may be one of the reasons why I was of the opinion to take Iupati or Pouncey at 15 if we did not have McClain and Thomas on the board and were unwilling/unable to trade down. At that spot in the draft, a 10 year very high probability at Guard (/Center) when another player is gone is NOT a bad fallback.
Let’s update where we are with 5 positions being analyzed to date:
One thing which is also clear from drafting OT is that when you are wrong (Gallery) you can still save with moving him over to Guard. Wonder is not in love with the player, but he gets a 4 for surviving.
We all understand that you normally do not want to ‘waste’ a pick in Round 1 with a very good Guard or Center. But as we keep compiling the data, more and more things are becoming clear. Certainty is one of those issues. We will look at the variability in the pick (how much the choice can range on average, aka standard deviation) and that will demonstrate the ‘bust’ profile. Without having yet done this work, we see that anecdotally Offensive Linemen will have less bust potential. Also, not all grades are created equal. How do you compare QB at X vs Offensive Tackle at 3.7? First things first, we will get to QB. But the point is that if you are drafting a Guard at 15 he better be at least a solid starter (3) or else you have made a mistake. We were not born yesterday.. we understand that a 3 QB is more valuable than a 3 Guard.
When we compile the data we will also note what the average spot in Round 1 was for that position. For QBs it is likely that it is going to be a lot higher than the rest of the positions.
The data is being built. If we can extend it to the past 20 years after all the positions are done we will have a snapshot review of the ratings achieved from every spot between 1-32 in the draft. That will be very revealing. I do not know if we will have the manpower or time to look at Round 2, but I’d love to see the relative drop off in rating. We would be able to see just how much you get and give away by trading down into Round 2. The Moneyball question is- how many teams are actually doing this? Do not bet on a lot of them. I know the Eagles and Patriots have done this because they trade like breathing. And if you do not understand what I am talking about, please read Moneyball by Michael Lewis and then you will instantly see why.