Do not draft Defensive Tackles in Round1

We went back to the year 2003 to look at the selection of William Joseph, the last DT we have taken #1 in the draft.

And it was scary.

It was a who’s who of draft busts.

 

Player Pick Overall Starts Sacks Pro Bowls
Dewayne Robertson 4 90 16 0
Johnathan Sullivan 6 16 1 0
Jimmy Kennedy 12 31 8 0
William Joseph 25 17 7 0

The Blutarsky- 0.0 Pro Bowls.

So we went back and took a look at every DT taken in Round 1 going back to 2000

 

Year Player Pick Overall Starts Sacks Pro Bowls Wonder’s Grade
2000 Corey Simon 6 91 32 1 3
Chris Hovan 25 133 22 0 3
2001 Gerard Warren 3 111 32 0 7
Damione Lewis 12 49 22 0 4
Marcus Stroud 13 100 26 3 1
Casey Hampton 19 106 8 5 1
  Ryan Pickett 29 105 8 0 4
2002 Ryan Sims 6 38 8 0 7
John Henderson 9 105 29 2 1
Wendell Bryant 12 9 1 0 7
Albert Haynesworth 15 74 28 2 1
2003 Dewayne Robertson 4 90 16 0 4
Johnathan Sullivan 6 16 1 0 7
Jimmy Kennedy 12 31 8 0 7
William Joseph 25 17 7 0 7
2004 Tommie Harris 14 84 27 3 2
Vince Wilfork 21 80 7 2 1
Marcus Tubbs 23 17 7 0 7
2005 Travis Johnson 16 38 2 0 4
Mike Patterson 31 70 11 0 4
2006 Haloti Ngata 12 61 1 1 1
Brodrick Bunkley 14 47 6 0 4
John McCargo 26 0 2 0 7
2007 Amobi Okoye 10 42 8 0 3
Adam Carriker 13 25 2 0 4
Justin Harrell 16 2 0 0 5
2008 Glenn Dorsey 5 30 2 0 5*
Sedrick Ellis 7 23 6 0 3*
2009 B.J. Raji 9 1 1 0 4* jury’s out
Peria Jerry 24 2 0 0 5*
Ziggy Hood 32 0 1 0 5*
AVERAGE 0.6!!! 4.1

*preliminary grades

WOOF!  Pathetic!! Vomit!!!

Let’s review the rating system we are using in the Draft Project (1=Star/Multiple Pro Bowls, 2= Pro Bowl player, 3=Solid starter, 4= starter who is replaceable, 5= second string, 6= fringe, 7= bust).  These guys AVERAGED being replaceable starters….  AVERAGED!  Part of this is the system, where a 1st rounder who is not a starter is essentially a bust.  But nonetheless, when you draft in Round 1 your goal is not a 3, it is a 2, with 1′s being the true goal.  The total number of 1′s and 2′s were 7 players.  That is a .220 batting average.  Awful.  If I am going to hit in the draft in the first round one out of every five years, I am doing something very wrong.  I do not want to hear about getting a 3 or 4.  Starters?  If I am drafting well my 5th round David Diehl can get to that level.  The record here demonstrates that we are not generating impact players when we as a league draft DT in Round 1.   

We have been saying it here on the UltimateNYGiants Blog for a while now: drafting Defensive Tackles early is no joy.  Now we have some hard data, certainly modern day data going back to the 31 First Round Draft Choices taken in the past 10 years.  31 cream of the crop.  The elite.  Plenty of Top 10 picks.  And they as a group S*CK.  What does this tell you?  I know what it tells me:

1) You better know what you are doing if you are intent on drafting a DT in round 1.  You must avoid them here.

2) The meat grinder of the line of scrimmage takes its biggest toll on these guys.  Guys like Tommie Harris and Albert Haynesworth are the ones who make it to the promised land, and once they get there they get injured.

3) IT TAKES 3 YEARS FOR THESE BOYS TO BECOME MEN.  Physically they simply are not ready.  Some of the statistical evidence is shown in the low number of pro bowls that these guys make. 31 first rounders have 19 Pro Bowls collectively between them!  Collectively, they don’t make an impact at the beginning, they don’t make an impact at the end, AND on top of all of that their careers are not long enough.   

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